Bitcoin Holds the Line, Institutions Stack Sats, and Ethereum Reawakens: Q2 Momentum Builds Across Crypto

May 04, 2025

Bitcoin has held steady above $93K for two consecutive weeks, signaling strong support and growing bullish momentum. A notable rise in short-term trader balances points to renewed speculative interest, potentially indicating the start of a broader uptrend rather than just a relief rally. Over 7,000 BTC—worth more than $500 million—were recently withdrawn from Coinbase, suggesting institutional accumulation and reinforcing bullish sentiment. Adding fuel to this trend, BlackRock received a massive 10,000 BTC investment (~$970M) yesterday, echoing a similar pattern from November 2024, when it secured $1.2B on the 7th and another ~$800M by mid-month.

Some observers are drawing parallels to previous election-cycle behavior: in 2016–2017, Bitcoin pumped into Trump’s inauguration, saw a 34% correction in Q1, then entered a full-blown bull run. In the current cycle, we saw a similar pattern—pump into Trump, a 32% Q1 dump, and now what could be the early stages of a renewed rally. Meanwhile, markets seem to be desensitizing to tariff headlines, potentially pricing in future rate cuts, quantitative easing, and trade deal optimism. Liquidity has been quietly flowing into crypto, often a precursor to official policy shifts.

Still, while the rally fuels new projects and trading activity, caution is warranted—bull markets never ring a bell at the start. Importantly, over 254,000 BTC have recently moved into the long-term HODL category (held >155 days), many bought above $95K. This signals strong conviction and a growing reluctance to sell, reinforcing the narrative of accumulating strength rather than short-term hype.

Bitcoin Performance vs the Naira, KES, and the Rand

As of May 04, 2025, BTC/USD showed minimal movement, declining slightly by 0.05%, while USD/NGN gained 0.32%, indicating a stronger USD against the Nigerian Naira. In contrast, USD/KES dipped marginally by 0.02%, reflecting near-stability for the Kenyan Shilling, and USD/ZAR fell sharply by 1.53%, highlighting significant strength in the South African Rand. Bitcoin’s performance was relatively flat compared to these forex pairs, with the most notable divergence being the Rand’s appreciation against the USD, while the Naira weakened. This suggests mixed trends across emerging market currencies, with Bitcoin remaining steadier than USD/NGN and USD/ZAR but closely aligned with USD/KES.

BTC Vs. NSE and NGX

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT on Binance) fell by 1.33%, underperforming compared to the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSEKE), which gained 1.41%, while the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGXGROUP) remained flat at 0.00% despite intraday volatility that saw it briefly dip to -0.56%. This divergence highlights Bitcoin’s bearish trend against the bullish Kenyan equities and the stagnant Nigerian market, suggesting weaker crypto momentum relative to these African stock indices. The contrast reflects differing investor sentiment, with NSEKE showing resilience, NGXGROUP experiencing muted activity, and BTC facing downward pressure.

BTC Vs Altcoins

Ethereum is flashing strong bullish signals, with its ecosystem hitting a new all-time high of 15.4 million active addresses in a single week—a massive 62.7% surge. Layer 2 dominance also reached a record 6.65x, highlighting that Ethereum’s scalability solutions are gaining real traction. Despite persistent FUD, institutional interest remains strong, with BlackRock continuing to accumulate ETH aggressively. The rapid growth in users and infrastructure suggests a resilient ecosystem poised to support Ethereum’s long-term strength.

While the market chases narratives, Ethereum quietly builds. ETH has spent months in the shadows—no hype, no retail buzz, just sideways price action and general disbelief. It’s the classic post-institutional phase: Ethereum became an institutional-grade asset, lost the spotlight on Crypto Twitter, but its fundamentals never wavered. Now, it’s leading all chains in net inflows, signaling renewed interest. The Ethereum Foundation recently outlined a clear vision: drive real usage anchored in Ethereum’s core strengths and build system-wide resilience—from infrastructure to developer ecosystems. No flashy catalysts here—just steady value, deep conviction, and meaningful momentum. Even Fidelity is paying attention, purchasing $6.43 million worth of ETH via Coinbase.

BTC vs Gold

Bitcoin and gold continue their relay race—gold dominated in Q1, but as we head into Q2, it’s Bitcoin’s turn to lead the charge.

Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs attracted a staggering $3 billion in inflows last week—marking the second-highest weekly total since spot ETFs launched—raising the question: safe haven demand or premium farming? While BlackRock led with $1.446B, Ark Invest ($621M), Fidelity ($574M), and Bitwise ($117M) also posted notable gains. Interestingly, CME funding rates stayed low (5% APR), indicating minimal arbitrage or basis trade activity. With Bitcoin rallying from $85K to $96K (+12.94%) during the same period, the inflows appear largely organic rather than driven by short-term strategies—a bullish signal pointing to growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term resilience amid global uncertainty.

Market Related Charts

Bitcoin edging closer and closer to a breakout from the ascending triangle

In April alone, companies added nearly 100,000 BTC to their treasuries—and notably, 15 firms joined the Bitcoin game for the first time. This isn’t about hype or meme-fueled FOMO; it’s about calculated, long-term conviction. Quiet accumulation, cold storage, and corporate suits making moves.

Tether minted 1 billion USDT on the TRON blockchain and moved it to its treasury—a move that caught the market’s attention. Just last month, a similar $1B issuance on April 22 preceded an 8% rally in Bitcoin. Historically, large-scale USDT activity on TRON has aligned with increased buy-side pressure in the crypto markets. With sentiment already warming up, the question now is whether history is about to rhyme agai

Melania’s memecoin team has reportedly offloaded $1.5 million worth of $MELANIA over the past three days, capitalizing on a 21% price bump—despite the token still trading 96% below its all-time high. In a curious twist, both the $TRUMP and $MELANIA teams appear to be one and the same, adding another layer of intrigue to the already bizarre memecoin-politics crossover.

Crypto launchpads often shine in pitch decks and highlight reels, boasting impressive all-time high (ATH) returns—but the real picture is less glamorous. When measured by current ROI, the hype begins to fade. In fact, only 3 out of the top 10 launchpads have delivered positive returns over the past year, exposing a growing disconnect between launchpad promises and real investor outcomes.

AI and DePIN sectors are bouncing back strongly after a weak end to Q1.

Outlook

The crypto market is showing renewed strength in Q2, led by Bitcoin’s sustained rally, massive ETF inflows, and growing institutional accumulation, signaling increasing long-term confidence. Meanwhile, Ethereum is quietly building momentum with record user activity and institutional interest, while altcoin sectors like AI and DePIN begin to rebound, hinting at a broader market recovery.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, tax, investment, financial, or professional advice.

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